By Camargo International in Economic — 27 Jan 2026

Daily: Mexico Economic 27.01.2026

Bank of America forecasts a moderate GDP growth for Mexico in 2026.

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The Bank estimated that the Mexican economy will grow 1.2% in 2026 after stagnating at 0.4% in 2025, with potential momentum from improved performance in the US, the spillover from the Soccer Cup, and the export sector. However, its chief economist Carlos Capistrán warned that low per capita growth has become chronic over the last decade and stressed the need to strengthen institutions and the Rule of law.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that the unemployment rate in Mexico reached 2.4% in December 2025, the same as in December 2024. The unemployed population stood at 1.5 million people, maintaining the unemployment rate (UR). Compared to November, the UR showed a decrease of 0.3 percentage points.

The price of natural gas in Mexico exceeded the amount approved in the 2026 Economic Package, with prices ranging from $5 to $8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) had set an average of $4 per MMBtu. This increase is due to growing demand for gas for heating in the face of a harsh winter in the US.

Representatives from the American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham) said US President Donald Trump faces political limitations in modifying the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Amcham President said that binational talks on specific issues could arise, but ruled out a breakdown of the trilateral agreement. He stressed that resolving the “irritants” raised by the US.Trade Representative is crucial to advancing investment in Mexico.

The National Auto Parts Industry (INA) projected that Mexico will attract US$2.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2026. Julio Galván, INA's Economic Studies Manager, reported that this figure will be possible thanks to the strengthening of supply chains and the increase in regional content associated with the phenomenon of nearshoring in the automotive industry. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the revision of the USMCA, Mexico maintains a historic share of the US auto parts market.

President Sheinbaum inaugurated the new customs office in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, considered key to Mexican foreign trade. During the event, Sheinbaum pointed out that the new headquarters of the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) will allow for the centralization of operations and improvement of working conditions, as well as progress in the fight against corruption. She also emphasized that this strengthening of the customs system is essential for increasing public revenue and supporting national development.

The Tax Administration Service (SAT) presented its 2026 Master Plan, which seeks to achieve a historic revenue collection target of 5.8 trillion pesos. This plan includes specific actions to combat the purchase and sale of false invoices, as well as a 30-day period for taxpayers to correct their tax situation upon receiving invoices that are declared false. Domingo Ruíz López, from the Mexican Academy of Tax Law, warned that these measures must be careful not to violate taxpayers' rights.

President Sheinbaum reported that Ricardo Salinas Pliego's companies began talks with the SAT this week to settle a debt of 51 billion pesos, after the businessman expressed his intention to comply with the payment. The president clarified that this is not a political negotiation but rather a matter of applying the law, with the possibility of adjustments of up to 39%, while the Supreme Court validated that only collegiate courts can resolve the case. At the same time, Salinas Pliego reiterated the possibility of running for president in 2030, although he said that his current priority is to close the tax agreement and avoid seizures.

Mining companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) have achieved an increase of 335.301 billion pesos in market capitalization value during the current year. Grupo México, the world's fourth-largest copper producer, leads this growth with a gain of 239.556 billion pesos, reaching a total value of 1.56 trillion pesos. Other companies such as Industrias Peñoles and Minera Frisco, owned by businessman Carlos Slim, also reported significant increases in their market capitalization.

The National Antitrust Commission will supervise Gruma for 10 years after agreeing to eliminate exclusive contracts with tortilla factories, a measure that seeks to restore competition in a market where the company controls 70%; The company will have to submit periodic reports and will be evaluated in five years, while analysts point out that, although Gruma maintains its dominance, the resolution opens space for new players and provides greater certainty in a sector that represents about 28% of its sales.