By Camargo International in Economic — 29 Jan 2026

Daily: Mexico Economic 29.01.2026

President Convenes Automotive CEOs for Comprehensive Sector Strategy Amid USMCA Uncertainty.

FEATURED STORY

President Sheinbaum met January 28 at the National Palace with chief executives from Mexico's nine major automotive manufacturers, including representatives from the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA) led by José Rogelio Garza and Odracir Barquera, to advance development of a comprehensive industry plan coordinated through an intersecretarial commission.
The automotive sector contributes 4.5% of Mexico's GDP and generates approximately 15,000 direct jobs in Estado de México alone, where Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler operate plants in Toluca, Naucalpan, and Cuautitlán Izcalli without reported closures or layoffs.
The meeting occurs as the US prepares to review USMCA rules of origin (currently 75% regional content for automotive), Section 232 tariffs that imposed 25% levies on vehicles in 2025, steel purchase criteria, and labor compliance mechanisms. Between 85-88% of vehicles manufactured in Mexico are exported, primarily to the US and Canada, positioning USMCA negotiations as critical to the industry's competitive positioning and investment attraction capacity through 2026.

Fitch Ratings projects Mexico's economy will grow 1.3% in 2026—among Latin America's weakest performances alongside Bolivia—following an estimated 0.4% expansion in 2025, according to analyst Todd Martínez during a "Credit Outlook 2026" webinar. The rating agency warned the USMCA could enter "zombie mode" where the treaty remains nominally valid but operates under annual renewals lacking long-term stability guarantees, creating permanent uncertainty for companies dependent on US-Canada trade, increased discretionary tariff risk, and reduced attractiveness for nearshoring projects.
Fitch maintains Mexico's BBB- sovereign rating with stable outlook while cautioning that fiscal pressures have replaced what was previously the country's strength, as declining petroleum production combines with high deficits during weak growth periods to complicate debt management and consolidation pathways.
BBVA Research reported a 4.1% decline in Mexico's private consumption in December 2025, the largest contraction since April 2020. Analyst Saide Salazar noted the decline was driven by decreases in spending on goods (2.0%) and services (7.3%) amid economic uncertainty and deteriorating consumer confidence. The Consumer Confidence Indicator (ICC) from INEGI fell 2.4 points.

The National Minimum Wage Commission (CONASAMI) unanimously established a new Consultative Commission across labor, employer, and government sectors during its first ordinary 2026 session on January 27 to evaluate Mexico's wage system structure. The Commission will analyze professional salaries and study the impact of minimum wage increases implemented since 2017.

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard held January 28 meetings in Washington with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, marking the first in-person engagement to resume commercial dialogue following previous conversation interruptions.
Both parties acknowledged recent progress and agreed to continue working on non-tariff barriers and structural reforms within the USMCA review context. Ebrard highlighted three factors driving Mexican exports: confidence in Mexico, corporate strength, and preferential US market access, noting 2025 exports reached a record $665 billion with 7.6% annual growth according to INEGI, driven by extractive industry (27% increase) and manufacturing (10% increase).

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced expansion of a commercial agreement with Mexico during the 2026 International Economic Forum for Latin America and the Caribbean, seeking to strengthen regional integration and diversify economic relations particularly with Europe amid geopolitical tensions. Lula highlighted cooperation innovations including the Pix digital payment system and academic exchange programs for knowledge transfer.

Mexican mining conglomerate Grupo México is considering significant investments in the US. Leonardo Contreras, head of the mining division, reported the company plans to reopen its inactive Hayden, Arizona smelter and the Amarillo, Texas refinery with a $230 million investment that would significantly increase copper smelting and refining capacity. The reopening would boost nationwide supply of the red metal in a country that uses twice the refined copper it produces, having only two other domestic smelters (Freeport McMoRan's Miami facility in Arizona and Rio Tinto Kennecott in Utah).

The Tax Administration Service (SAT) presented its 2026 Master Plan, which seeks to achieve a historic revenue collection target of 5.8 trillion pesos. This plan includes specific actions to combat the purchase and sale of false invoices, as well as a 30-day period for taxpayers to correct their tax situation upon receiving invoices that are declared false. Domingo Ruíz López, from the Mexican Academy of Tax Law, warned that these measures must be careful not to violate taxpayers' rights.

Mexico positioned itself as the seventh-largest tourism economy globally, achieving a $262 billion valuation according to the World Council of Travel and Tourism (WTTC). This ranking underscored tourism's importance in the national economy and strengthens Mexico as a key global tourism destination, highlighting its role in revenue generation and economic activity.